基于DEA-ANP的快递企业绩效评价研究

在建立快递企业绩效评价模型时,提出了利用DEA和ANP相结合对快递企业绩效进行评价的方法.不同于之前研究,文中提出的方法使用ANP替换AHP,充分考虑了物流行业的"效益背反"现象.其解决了AHP确定权重时,无法体现元素之间关联性的问题,单独使用DEA评价时,无法考虑决策者偏好的弊端.首先,方法基于.ANP方法,求出每个指标的权重,再分别对每个因素使用DEA方法求出各系统的相对效率值;然后,将各指标权重和相对效率值结合,求出各快递企业中营业部的整体效率值并进行排序;最后通过实例分析,验证了此方法的实用性、可操作性及优越性.     

基于网络媒体信息的传染病传播模型及其仿真研究

当一种突发传染病开始流行时,政府、媒体会以各种形式告知民众,有防范意识的民众将采取一定的防范措施来降低感染率.考虑面对一种突发传染病,将易感群体划分为具有防范意识和不具有防范意识两种群体,利用生命周期理论,分析网络媒体信息报道对传染病传播的影响,以此为依据建立一种改进的传染病传播模型(MSI).利用网络大数据得到对传染病有防范意识群体的观测值信息,利用神经网络技术对模型MSI的参数进行反演.然后对模型MSI数值仿真得到传染病传播过程,提出了相应的控制措施.     

I������ɾʧ�����¼���ʧЧ������ģ�͵Ĺ�������

A cured model is a useful approach for analysing failure time data in which some subjects could eventually experience and others never experience the event of interest. All subjects in the test belong to one of the two groups: the susceptible group and the non-susceptible group. There has been considerable progress in the development of semi-parametric models for regression analysis of time-to-event data. However, most of the current work focuses on right-censored data, especially when the population contains a non-ignorable cured subgroup. In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric cure model for current status data. In general, treatments are developed to both increase the patients' chances of being cured and prolong the survival time among non-cured patients. A logistic regression model is proposed for whether the subject is in the susceptible group. An accelerated failure time regression model is proposed for the event time when the subject is in the non-susceptible group. An EM algorithm is used to maximize the log-likelihood of the observed data. Simulation results show that the proposed method can get efficient estimations.     

一种面板数据分位数回归模型的工具变量方法

本文将工具变量分位数回归模型(IVQR)应用到面板数据中,结合Canay对面板分位数回归的两步估计法以及Chernozhukov对IVQR模型的估计方法,提出了两步面板分位数工具变量估计法(2S-IVFEQR),并给出相应的参数估计。本文提出的方法较已有的方法计算复杂度低,蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示在数据量不大或者处理长面板数据时,2S-IVFEQR方法要优于传统的IVFEQR方法,且运算时间短。     

应用图论分析与最优化理论来数据挖掘大规模水牛普里昂蛋白结构数据

图论、最优化理论显然在蛋白质结构的研究中大有用场. 首先, 调查/回顾了研究蛋白质结构的所有图论模型. 其后, 建立了一个图论模型: 让蛋白质的侧链来作为图的顶点, 应用图论的诸如团、 $k$-团、 社群、 枢纽、聚类等概念来建立图的边. 然后, 应用数学最优化的现代摩登数据挖掘算法/方法来分析水牛普里昂蛋白结构的大数据. 成功与令人耳目一新的数值结果将展示给朋友们.     

On the vanishing of homology in random Čech complexes

We compute the homology of random ?ech complexes over a homogeneous Poisson process on the d‐dimensional torus, and show that there are, coarsely, two phase transitions. The first transition is analogous to the Erd?s ‐Rényi phase transition, where the ?ech complex becomes connected. The second transition is where all the other homology groups are computed correctly (almost simultaneously). Our calculations also suggest a finer measurement of scales, where there is a further refinement to this picture and separation between different homology groups. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 51, 14–51, 2017     

基于面板模型的商品房价格影响因素的实证研究

选取了我国30个省市2006~2015年的面板数据,应用面板数据计量模型回归的方法,基于R语言对影响商品房价格的因素进行实证研究.首先,经过Hausman检验与F检验确定面板数据的模型为混合估计模型;模型可以通过十折交叉验证法、残差正太性的检验、Q-Q图检验、变量间共线性的检验;最后经过逐步回归分析,结果表明土地价格、商品房销售面积、居民可支配收入、人均国内总产值财政收入占地区生产总值比重、汇率这6个指标对商品房价格都有显著性的影响.其中,土地价格和居民可支配收入对商品房价格的影响最为突出.     

Tensor Decomposition With Generalized Lasso Penalties

We present an approach for penalized tensor decomposition (PTD) that estimates smoothly varying latent factors in multiway data. This generalizes existing work on sparse tensor decomposition and penalized matrix decompositions, in a manner parallel to the generalized lasso for regression and smoothing problems. Our approach presents many nontrivial challenges at the intersection of modeling and computation, which are studied in detail. An efficient coordinate-wise optimization algorithm for PTD is presented, and its convergence properties are characterized. The method is applied both to simulated data and real data on flu hospitalizations in Texas and motion-capture data from video cameras. These results show that our penalized tensor decomposition can offer major improvements on existing methods for analyzing multiway data that exhibit smooth spatial or temporal features.     

Sufficient Dimension Reduction and Variable Selection for Large-p-Small-n Data With Highly Correlated Predictors

Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) is a paradigm for reducing the dimension of the predictors without losing regression information. Most SDR methods require inverting the covariance matrix of the predictors. This hinders their use in the analysis of contemporary datasets where the number of predictors exceeds the available sample size and the predictors are highly correlated. To this end, by incorporating the seeded SDR idea and the sequential dimension-reduction framework, we propose a SDR method for high-dimensional data with correlated predictors. The performance of the proposed method is studied via extensive simulations. To demonstrate its use, an application to microarray gene expression data where the response is the production rate of riboflavin (vitamin B₂) is presented.     

Efficient Data Augmentation for Fitting Stochastic Epidemic Models to Prevalence Data

Stochastic epidemic models describe the dynamics of an epidemic as a disease spreads through a population. Typically, only a fraction of cases are observed at a set of discrete times. The absence of complete information about the time evolution of an epidemic gives rise to a complicated latent variable problem in which the state space size of the epidemic grows large as the population size increases. This makes analytically integrating over the missing data infeasible for populations of even moderate size. We present a data augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework for Bayesian estimation of stochastic epidemic model parameters, in which measurements are augmented with subject-level disease histories. In our MCMC algorithm, we propose each new subject-level path, conditional on the data, using a time-inhomogenous continuous-time Markov process with rates determined by the infection histories of other individuals. The method is general, and may be applied to a broad class of epidemic models with only minimal modifications to the model dynamics and/or emission distribution. We present our algorithm in the context of multiple stochastic epidemic models in which the data are binomially sampled prevalence counts, and apply our method to data from an outbreak of influenza in a British boarding school. Supplementary material for this article is available online.